Category: Crypto
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Good Debt, Bad Debt, and Crazy Leverage
My journey with debt has been a fascinating one, teaching me how it can either fuel wealth or lead to financial stress. When used recklessly, debt can have dire consequences—especially when it isn’t tied to income-producing assets or when leveraged trades go awry. However, when applied strategically and safely, debt can serve as a powerful…
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Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Dec 15
As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have a few more months at…
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Timing the Top: How We’re Strategising Our Crypto Exit in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
One of the hardest things for any investor is ensuring a well-thought-out exit plan. My own investing journey has taught me that the challenges often lie more in the timing of selling an asset than in the initial purchase. I’ve learned that it’s essential to have a clear exit strategy before buying in, defining the…
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Understanding Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle: Phases, History, and Current Outlook
As I attempt to better understand crypto’s 4-year cycle to strategically time our exit from this investment, I’m diving into how these cycles unfold around the Bitcoin halving event. Each halving halves the reward for mining Bitcoin, reducing new supply and often sparking a chain reaction in price. This supply shock generally drives Bitcoin through…
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Was It Skill or Just Luck?
I genuinely believe much of my success comes down to luck rather than intelligence. I grew up as a white male in a working-class family in a top Western country in the 80s. My parents, both school teachers, valued education and encouraged me to explore academics, sports, and culture. I had access to a free…
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Top Indicators for Identifying Bitcoin Cycle Peaks
As the crypto market edges into the anticipated “banana zone” for this cycle, we’re analysing indicators from the past three cycles to better predict the next cycle top. Through our research, we’ve identified a set of 14 critical Bitcoin indicators that we can monitor in real time. When 10 out of these 14 indicators are…
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Why Circle Has a Money Printing Business Model
Previously, I have discussed how stablecoins have gained significant traction over the past five years, showing minimal correlation with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. In this article, I’ll delve deeper into Circle, the second-largest provider of stablecoins, and explain my thesis on how they’ve developed a unique and highly profitable business model. Circle, a privately held company,…
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Why a 12% Annual Return Hurdle is Essential to Maintain Your Purchasing Power
Many people don’t realise that if their wages and assets aren’t growing by at least 12% annually, they are effectively becoming poorer. To clarify this concept, I’ve summarised a theory developed by Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor. Pal’s theory, known as the Everything Code, centres on the debasement of currency by central banks. This…
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Stablecoins – Crypto’s First Real World Application
In a world where understanding and conviction around the value of cryptocurrency can be rare, stablecoins emerge as a beacon of reliability. Often, when discussing the crypto landscape with those not yet converted, a common refrain is the struggle to grasp its intrinsic value. Despite the relentless pitches about Bitcoin’s potential, many remain unconvinced. However,…
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Web 3.0: The Evolution from Passive Consumption to Active Execution
Having joined the tech scene around 2007, I unfortunately missed the shift from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0. Nevertheless, my immersion in technology since then has ensured that I’m now an early adopter of Web 3.0. I’ve taken the time to research and form my own views around the meaning of Web 3.0. The internet,…
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Calendar Year 2023 – Annual Portfolio Review
Reflecting on 2023, it proved to be a dynamic year for our portfolio, culminating an annual return of 18.81%. Taking into account the previous years performance this delivers an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 14.91% which surpasses our benchmark goal of 14%. An excellent achievement and something that Morgan and I are thrilled about.…
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How We Will Do Things Differently For Our 3rd Crypto Cycle
In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, it’s crucial to learn from past experiences and adapt your approach. After navigating two crypto cycles, we developed a comprehensive strategy for the third cycle, and in this article, I’ll share the details of our plan and how it differs from previous mistakes. A Recap of the Past We…
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