TheBucket

Our Insights

Insights gleaned from 25 years of life and investments.

Throughout this journey, as a Professional Opportunist I’ve encountered both missteps and triumphs, alongside fortunate strokes of luck.

My outlook on life, people, and investments leans towards the “glass half full,” fostering an optimistic perspective. Consequently, I’ve gravitated towards investment strategies and approaches that often diverge from mainstream consensus, challenging the perspectives of friends, family, and peers.

My aim is to impart valuable lessons that may resonate with you. Here’s to shared wisdom and growth—Ryan.

  • The Five F’s Lifestyle Audit: Lessons From a Stress-Test Year

    Each year I run a simple but brutally honest exercise on my life: The Five F’s Lifestyle Audit………Friendship, Family, Financial, Fitness and Fun. I’ve written previously about how the framework works and why I use it (read that here), so I won’t repeat the mechanics. Instead, this article focuses on…

  • Calendar Year 2025 – Annual Portfolio Review

    As we enter 2026, we are pleased to report another year of solid performance across our diversified portfolio. For the 2025 calendar year, the portfolio delivered an annual return of 13.36%, bringing our Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to 16.31% per annum since we began tracking performance in January 2022.…

  • My Next Step Toward a Medicine 3.0 Life: How I Finally Found a System That Matches Peter Attia’s Philosophy

    In my previous article My Journey to Medicine 3.0: How Peter Attia Changed the Way I Think About Health I explored how Peter Attia’s framework changed the way I think about health, longevity, and prevention. What I didn’t fully appreciate at the time was this: Understanding Medicine 3.0 is easy.…

  • Riding the Long Waves: Understanding Secular vs Cyclical Market Trends

    In Technology Has Been Eating the World, But It’s About to Exponentially Consume It, I explored how innovation compounds exponentially……how AI, data, and automation are reshaping everything from productivity to investing. And in Why a 12% Annual Return Is Essential to Maintain Your Wealth, I argued that investors need sustained…

  • The Coming Fusion of AI and Money: How Stablecoins Will Power the Exponential Economy

    When I wrote Technology Has Been Eating the World, But It’s About to Exponentially Consume It earlier this year, I argued that artificial intelligence isn’t just another wave of innovation……..it’s an accelerant for everything that came before it. But what happens when AI collides with money itself? 2026 might be…

  • How I Try to Overcome My Behavioural Biases with the 3×3 Loop

    In my previous article, I outlined the psychological biases and behaviours that have repeatedly tripped me up as an investor. Understanding those biases was a big step, but knowing them wasn’t enough. I needed a simple framework I could actually use in real time……….before I buy, while I’m holding, and…

  • The psychological biases that have held back my investing

    What has held me back (and I suspect many others) on my investing journey isn’t a lack of information…….it’s the reactive decisions I’ve made in hot, emotional moments where I FOMO into a trend or panic sell into a falling market. Those choices weren’t random; they were driven by hard‑wired…

  • Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Aug 15 (More Indicators Added)

    As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. New Indicators – Bitcoin Cycle Risk Framework We’ve decided to incorporate some additional indicators courtesy of Jamie Coutts over at RealVision. The Bitcoin Cycle Risk Framework by Jamie Coutts…

  • My Journey to Medicine 3.0: How Peter Attia Changed the Way I Think About Health

    Since I was a child, I’ve always loved physical exercise. You could say I’m addicted to it. Sports, gym sessions, running, soccer, afl, surfing….it’s been a part of my daily routine for decades. Through my youth and well into my 40s, I believed that being active equaled being healthy. After…

  • The Collapse of the Old Guard: Why Major Parties Are Losing Touch in Australia and the U.S.

    We’re living through a political realignment….and not the kind either side is prepared for. In both Australia and the United States, we’ve seen once-dominant major parties implode under the weight of outdated ideologies, internal dysfunction, and a refusal to evolve with their electorates. I’m not a Trump supporter, nor do…

  • Financial Freedom Is Rarely Achieved by Selling Your Time

    Are you an employee or a self-employed business owner simply selling your time for money? Most working people fall into one of these two categories…..and as a result, they’re effectively earning an hourly rate no matter how good the title or salary sounds. But a small percentage of the population…

  • Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update May 15

    As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here’s a snapshot of where the key indicators currently sit and what they’re suggesting about Bitcoin’s next moves. Since Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin has paused its upward momentum, largely due…

  • The Most Important Financial Decision You’ll Ever Make Is Who You Build Your Life With

    Your most valuable asset isn’t listed in your portfolio. It doesn’t generate quarterly returns or IPO. But it shapes your financial future more than any ETF, property, or startup. It wakes up next to you.It’s seen you at your worst and still loves you.It either compounds your life or quietly…

  • The Power of Compound Investing: How to Grow Wealth Slowly but Surely

    If there’s one financial lesson I wish I had learned in high school, it’s the power of compound investing. Unfortunately, this crucial wealth-building principle is rarely taught in schools, leaving many young people unaware of how they can set themselves up for long-term financial success. The truth is, wealth isn’t…

  • The Crisis of Western Male Youths: A Growing Minority Without Value?

    The growing crisis among young men in Western societies is becoming increasingly evident. Declining economic and social standing, disengagement from education and the workforce, and broader societal consequences are shaping a generation at risk. Professor Scott Galloway, a renowned author, business professor, and public commentator, has extensively analysed this issue,…

  • Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Feb 15

    As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. Through all previous cycles the BTC…

  • Technology Has Been Eating the World, but It Is About to Exponentially Consume It

    In our previous article, we discussed why your investment assets must achieve a 12% annual return to maintain purchasing power. Here, we explore the asset classes that have consistently surpassed this benchmark and propose a thesis around why they will continue to outperform this benchmark through to 2030. Recap: The…

  • Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Jan 15

    As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have…

  • Calendar Year 2024: Annual Portfolio Review

    As we start 2025, we are pleased to report another year of strong performance across our diversified portfolio. With an annual return of 22.26% for the 2024 calendar year, our Internal Rate of Return (IRR) now sits at 17.31% per year since we began tracking it in January 2022, reflecting…

  • Good Debt, Bad Debt, and Crazy Leverage

    My journey with debt has been a fascinating one, teaching me how it can either fuel wealth or lead to financial stress. When used recklessly, debt can have dire consequences—especially when it isn’t tied to income-producing assets or when leveraged trades go awry. However, when applied strategically and safely, debt…

  • Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Dec 15

    As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have…

  • Why IRR Beats Big Multiples: What Matters with Investment Performance

    “I bought this property for $200K, and now it’s worth $1 million.” Sound familiar? These kinds of stories are everywhere—at parties, barbecues, and on social media. A 5x return grabs attention instantly. It sounds incredible, and your brain loves it because it’s simple: “Big number = good investment.” But here’s…

  • Timing the Top: How We’re Strategising Our Crypto Exit in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

    One of the hardest things for any investor is ensuring a well-thought-out exit plan. My own investing journey has taught me that the challenges often lie more in the timing of selling an asset than in the initial purchase. I’ve learned that it’s essential to have a clear exit strategy…

  • Understanding Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle: Phases, History, and Current Outlook

    As I attempt to better understand crypto’s 4-year cycle to strategically time our exit from this investment, I’m diving into how these cycles unfold around the Bitcoin halving event. Each halving halves the reward for mining Bitcoin, reducing new supply and often sparking a chain reaction in price. This supply…

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