Category: Finances
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Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Dec 15
As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking. Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have a few more months at…
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Why IRR Beats Big Multiples: What Matters with Investment Performance
“I bought this property for $200K, and now it’s worth $1 million.” Sound familiar? These kinds of stories are everywhere—at parties, barbecues, and on social media. A 5x return grabs attention instantly. It sounds incredible, and your brain loves it because it’s simple: “Big number = good investment.” But here’s the problem. That headline number…
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Timing the Top: How We’re Strategising Our Crypto Exit in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
One of the hardest things for any investor is ensuring a well-thought-out exit plan. My own investing journey has taught me that the challenges often lie more in the timing of selling an asset than in the initial purchase. I’ve learned that it’s essential to have a clear exit strategy before buying in, defining the…
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Understanding Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle: Phases, History, and Current Outlook
As I attempt to better understand crypto’s 4-year cycle to strategically time our exit from this investment, I’m diving into how these cycles unfold around the Bitcoin halving event. Each halving halves the reward for mining Bitcoin, reducing new supply and often sparking a chain reaction in price. This supply shock generally drives Bitcoin through…
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Was It Skill or Just Luck?
I genuinely believe much of my success comes down to luck rather than intelligence. I grew up as a white male in a working-class family in a top Western country in the 80s. My parents, both school teachers, valued education and encouraged me to explore academics, sports, and culture. I had access to a free…
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Top Indicators for Identifying Bitcoin Cycle Peaks
As the crypto market edges into the anticipated “banana zone” for this cycle, we’re analysing indicators from the past three cycles to better predict the next cycle top. Through our research, we’ve identified a set of 14 critical Bitcoin indicators that we can monitor in real time. When 10 out of these 14 indicators are…
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NDIS Property Investments: Lessons Learned and Why We Exited
In July 2023, we exited a 2.5-year investment in an NDIS property. The NDIS (National Disability Insurance Scheme) incentivises private real estate investors to build custom-designed homes that cater to the needs of disabled tenants. Under the scheme, each tenant contributes 50% of their disability pension toward rent, with additional government payments depending on the…
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Principles to Live By: Lessons I’ve Adopted Along the Way
Over time, I’ve picked up various principles that have shaped how I live my life. Whether these principles are about finances, relationships, operating a business or personal growth, they guide me in navigating the complexities of everyday life with purpose and clarity. Here’s a collection of 44+ key principles I’ve gathered over the past 44…
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Why Circle Has a Money Printing Business Model
Previously, I have discussed how stablecoins have gained significant traction over the past five years, showing minimal correlation with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. In this article, I’ll delve deeper into Circle, the second-largest provider of stablecoins, and explain my thesis on how they’ve developed a unique and highly profitable business model. Circle, a privately held company,…
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Why a 12% Annual Return Hurdle is Essential to Maintain Your Purchasing Power
Many people don’t realise that if their wages and assets aren’t growing by at least 12% annually, they are effectively becoming poorer. To clarify this concept, I’ve summarised a theory developed by Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor. Pal’s theory, known as the Everything Code, centres on the debasement of currency by central banks. This…
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Stablecoins – Crypto’s First Real World Application
In a world where understanding and conviction around the value of cryptocurrency can be rare, stablecoins emerge as a beacon of reliability. Often, when discussing the crypto landscape with those not yet converted, a common refrain is the struggle to grasp its intrinsic value. Despite the relentless pitches about Bitcoin’s potential, many remain unconvinced. However,…
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Exploring Arbitrage Profit Opportunities in Sports Betting
As a quintessential Australian, my upbringing was steeped in sports culture, enjoying the highs of AFL matches, F1 races, WSL events, NBA games, and the soccer World Cup. The legalisation of sports betting globally has significantly increased the stakes, transforming it into a lucrative industry, particularly noted in the USA, where it’s expected to swell…
