As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking.
Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. Through all previous cycles the BTC price maxed out by the end of the current calendar year.
Current Value of Factors
- Historic Cycle Timings – Until the 2nd part of 2025 this factor still is pre-peak as can ben seen by this graph.
- Market Sentiment – Google trends did hit a peak of 100 on Nov 12 on a 30 day timeframe which was then surpassed on December 5th. But over a long term timeframe (since 2017) it currently sits at an estimated 31 which is below the previous 2 peaks (100 in 2017 and 69 in 2021). Until this peaks above 60 over the long term range I believe there is still room to run.
- On-Chain Indicators: At present values, 0 out of 17 indicators have turned on. Its 17 as we added an additional indicator this month being the Monthly RSI.
| Indicator | Peak Value | Current Value | Jan 15 Value | Dec 15 Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puell Multiple | 3.5 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.23 |
| MVRV Z-Score | 7 | 2.34 | 2.52 | 3.09 |
| Mayer Multiple | 2.5 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.47 |
| Mayer Multiple Price Bands | Overbought | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish |
| Golden Ratio Multiplier | 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| SMA 1458 Days (4 Years) | 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| 1Y+ HODL Chart | 15-25% divergence from long-term holders | 12.34% divergence | 11.8% divergence | 10.9% divergence |
| Halving Price Regression | Orange and Red Zone (3-4 years ahead) | Green Zone | Green Zone | Green Zone |
| Bitcoin Long Term Power Law | Midway between Regression Line & Resistance | Below Regression Line | Below Regression Line | Just Passed Regression Line |
| Bitcoin MACD | 5,000+ | 4,125 | 4,534 | 3,962 |
| Pi Cycle Top Indicator | 111DMA crosses above 350DMA x2 | Moving Away | Divergence Moving Closer | Divergence Moving Closer |
| Thermocap Multiple | 200 | 135 | 137 | 150 |
| Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator | 0.4 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Net Unrealised Profit Loss (NUPL) | 75% | 55% | 56% | 62% |
| MVRV Score | 3.8 | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.6 |
| Ahr999 Index | 3.49 | 1.19 | 1.3 | 1.59 |
| Monthly RSI | 85+ | 70 | 75 | 73 |
4. Portfolio Rebalance: With the recent breather the crypto market is taking we are below our maximum target level of 15%.
5. Tax Optimisation: The first trench of crypto could be sold in December 2024.
Conclusion
As predicted crypto rallied into Trumps inauguration, in particular Solana which benefited from the meme coin that Trump launched on that blockchain. We’ve then experienced another breather in the crypto market largely due to the uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies. This pushed the USD higher which invariably isn’t great for the crypto market.
When central backs start increasing the money supply and the USD strength begins to reduce are the perfect ingredients for BTC. Its our thought that the USD has peaked and Trump will look to reduce this from here on in his term while other central banks like China will start to increase their M2 money supply.
Rebalancing Outcome
Although we indicated in the Jan report that we wouldn’t rebalance we actually did take sell a small amount of crypto and withdraw that cash from the system. We had some Solana on exchange which we earmarked to be sold over the next few months. When Solana hit a new ATH during the Trump meme coin mania we sold this bundle of Solana.
Also, yesterday we decided to sell the remaining amount of our Ether that we’d be holding since 2021. Although Ether has lagged the market over the past 2 years and had quite a large drawdown over the past month, we still managed to book just under a 300% gain over that time period.
With some of the other Layer 1 blockchains like Solana and Sui eating away at Ether’s base, will result in limited upside for Ether compared to these chains. So we decided to take the cash from the Ether sale and purchase Sui. Since bottoming out in April 2024 as per the graph below Sui has far outperformed Ether. We think this will continue throughout 2025 as Sui has momentum and tailwinds behind it.
TheBucket 