Bitcoin Cycle Peak Indicators – Update Jan 15

As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking.

Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have a few more months at least until a BTC ATH is reached.

Current Value of Factors

Historic Cycle Timings – Until mid Feb 2025 this factor still is pre-peak as can ben seen by this graph.
Market Sentiment – Google trends did hit a peak of 100 on Nov 12 on a 30 day timeframe which was then surpassed on December 5th. But over a long term timeframe (since 2017) it currently sits at an estimated 29 which is below the previous 2 peaks and which is below the 55 which was measured 1 month ago.
On-Chain Indicators: At present values, 0 out of 16 indicators have turned on.


Puell Multiple	3.5	1.11	1.23	1.07
MVRV Z-Score	7	2.52	3.09	2.72
Mayer Multiple	2.5	1.29	1.47	1.35
Mayer Multiple Price Bands	Overbought	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
Golden Ratio Multiplier	3	1.4	1.6	1.4
SMA 1458 Days (4 Years)	5	1.7	2.2	1.75
1Y+ HODL Chart	15-25% divergence from long-term holders	11.8% divergence	10.9% divergence	9.3 % divergence
Halving Price Regression	Orange and Red Zone (3-4 years ahead)	Green Zone	Green Zone	Green Zone
Bitcoin Long Term Power Law	Midway between Regression Line & Resistance	Below Regression Line	Just Passed Regression Line	Below Regression Line
Bitcoin MACD	-7,000 to +7,000	-2,000 to 1,000	-10,000 to -2,000	-5,176
Pi Cycle Top Indicator	111DMA crosses above 350DMA x2	Divergence Moving Closer	Divergence Moving Closer	Large Divergence
Thermocap Multiple	200	137	150	131
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator	0.5	0.07	0.12	0.07
Net Unrealised Profit Loss (NUPL)	75%	56%	62%	60%
MVRV Score	3.8	2.28	2.6	2.73
Ahr999 Index	3.49	1.3	1.59

4. Portfolio Rebalance: At present value the crypto portfolio makes up 14.1% of the net value of the portfolio and is below the 15% maximum target.

5. Tax Optimisation: The first trench of crypto could be sold in December 2024.

Conclusion

Over the past 30 days Bitcoin has taken a welcome and healthy breather in relation to the cycle. Most of the key metrics have reverted back to what they were 2 months ago. This was expected as all crypto cycles have local tops and minor sell-offs and consolidations before continuing the bull-run.

We expect that running into Trump’s inauguration should see the market begin to pickup and run into the next local peak around March/April.