As per our plan around timing the exit of this crypto cycle, outlined below is where the indicators are currently tracking.
Here is a graph that shows where we are in this Bitcoin cycle post-halving compared to other cycles in relation to Bitcoin ATH. This shows that we should have a few more months at least until a BTC ATH is reached.
Current Value of Factors
- Historic Cycle Timings – Until mid Feb 2025 this factor still is pre-peak as can ben seen by this graph.
- Market Sentiment – Google trends did hit a peak of 100 on Nov 12 on a 30 day timeframe which was then surpassed on December 5th. But over a long term timeframe (since 2017) it currently sits at an estimated 55 which is below the previous 2 peaks and only 4 points higher than the 51 which was measured 1 month ago.
- On-Chain Indicators: At present values, 0 out of 16 indicators have turned on.
| Indicator | Cycle High Value | Current Value | 1 Month Ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puell Multiple | 3.5 | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| MVRV Z-Score | 7 | 3.09 | 2.72 |
| Mayer Multiple | 2.5 | 1.47 | 1.35 |
| Mayer Multiple Price Bands | Overbought | Bullish | Bullish |
| Golden Ratio Multiplier | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| SMA 1458 Days (4 Years) | 5 | 2.2 | 1.75 |
| 1Y+ HODL Chart | 15-25% divergence from long-term holders | 10.9% divergence | 9.3 % divergence |
| Halving Price Regression | Orange and Red Zone (3-4 years ahead) | Green Zone | Green Zone |
| Bitcoin Long Term Power Law | Midway between Regression Line & Resistance | Just Passed Regression Line | Below Regression Line |
| Bitcoin MACD | -7,000 to +7,000 | -10,000 to -2,000 | -5,176 |
| Pi Cycle Top Indicator | 111DMA crosses above 350DMA x2 | Divergence Moving Closer | Large Divergence |
| Thermocap Multiple | 200 | 150 | 131 |
| Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator | 0.5 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| Net Unrealised Profit Loss (NUPL) | 75% | 62% | 60% |
| MVRV Score | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.73 |
| Ahr999 Index | 3.49 | 1.59 |
4. Portfolio Rebalance: At present value the crypto portfolio makes up 14.76% of the net value of the portfolio and is below the 15% maximum target.
5. Tax Optimisation: The first trench of crypto could be sold in December 2024.
Conclusion
As it currently standards all of the Bitcoin indicators and Google trends are very healthy and the majority have slightly increased over the past 30 days.
There is certainly nothing that indicators we have reached a cycle peak, although we could be moving into a short-term peak which is usually followed by a small-sell off. We wouldn’t trade this short-term sell off.
Rebalancing Outcome
Although we sit just under the ceiling of our portfolio crypto allocation and there is no reason to rebalance yet, we will be selling some crypto over the next 2 weeks before the end of December. The reason being is:
- We do have part payment due at the end of January for a medium term loan facility that we have in place. To cover this we are going to need to rebalance and use some of these crypto profits
- We’ve also never actually sold crypto which has then been converted into Fiat and extracted from the crypto system into our bank. So this is a good opportunity to test that process.
- We have a hedge fund investment which has dramatically underperformed our own crypto investments over the past 2+ years. From a values perspective we can’t continue to pay them a management fee for their terrible performance. We’ve already requested a full redemption of this investment at Dec 31.
The end result will be we will take around 10% profits from our total crypto portfolio by Dec 31.
TheBucket 